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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 27th, 2023–Jan 28th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Significant snowfall accumulation starting Friday afternoon will continue throughout the night.

Expect redistribution by moderate to strong winds slabs to form and new snow to be transported by associated wind.

Enjoy the powder but don't let it lure you into terrain with high consequences.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported in our area on Thursday. Avalanche control with the use of explosives produced three size 1.5 avalanches from wind slabs in the Fernie area on Wednesday. Ski cutting on Monday and Tuesday yielded more size 1 avalanches also produced from wind slabs.

Although the deep persistent slab problem has not produced in they have not produced any avalanches for some time it could still pose a threat for now. Be wary of areas with thin or variable depth snowpack and shallow rocky start zones throughout the region.

Snowpack Summary

New snow will be falling on wind slabs at higher elevations. Below treeline a surface hoar layer will be getting buried in sheltered areas and on south-facing aspects, a melt-freeze crust can be found getting covered over.

A crust/facet layer, 2 to 15 cm thick at treeline is 50 to 90 cm below the surface. Where it's thickest, it caps the settled and consolidated mid-snowpack.

Another crust/facet layer is down 70 to 150 cm. Below this crust, the basal snowpack is weak and faceted. The total snowpack depth ranges between 90 and 250 cm.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy, 10 to 20 cm accumulation, winds northeast 20 km/h gusting to 40, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

Saturday

Clearing, trace accumulation, winds northeast 15 to 30 km/h, treeline temperatures -21 C.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, possible trace accumulation, winds northeast 15 km/h gusting to 32, treeline temperatures getting down to -25 C.

Monday

Mostly sunny, no accumulation, winds west 15 km/h, treeline temperatures -19 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.