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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass.

As snowpack totals increase through the day, expect to find reactive storm slabs at all elevations and touchy wind slabs at treeline and alpine elevations. Conservative terrain travel is recommended.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported in the region.

Looking forward, storm and wind slabs will likely be reactive as the new snow settles and possibly touchy where this new snow is affected by wind like in lee (north to east) terrain features at all elevations.

The basal snowpack remains questionable and should still figure into terrain selection around steep features with shallow or variable snowpack areas where these layers may be more easily triggered by a person or machine as well as large wind slab or cornice releases.

Snowpack Summary

Snow starting overnight and continuing through the day will bring total snowfall between 20 and 30 cm to the area. This new snow coupled with moderate to strong southwest winds will be building storm slabs and wind slabs at all elevations. Cornices will also continue to grow over the next few days.

The mid-pack is gaining strength and consists of rounding facets and melt-freeze crusts that are starting to degrade.

Near the base of the snowpack, a persistent weak layer composed of large and weak facets formed in November is strengthening slowly. This layer is most likely to be triggered in thin, rocky alpine and upper treeline terrain.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 to 40 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -6 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -4 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 20 to 30 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -5 °C

Saturday

  • Cloudy with flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 to 40 km/h southwest winds, treeline temperatures -3 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.
  • In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.