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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2024–Dec 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

The new storm snow may need another day or two to bond to underlying layers.

Human-triggering remains possible on specific features.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, several storm slab avalanches sized 1 to 1.5, were ski cut near Mt.Washington.

On Friday, our field team reported shooting cracks from their skis on Mt.Cokely.

We expect that a widespread large avalanche cycle occurred Saturday in areas that received significant precipitation and wind. Natural avalanche activity is forecast to have tapered off by Monday but human-triggering remains possible.

Snowpack Summary

Over the last storm, 60 cm accumulated in some areas on the western and southern Island, with lesser amounts of 20 to 30 cm elsewhere. An additional 5 to 20 cm is expected to fall overnight and through Monday.

Strong to extreme southeasterly winds scoured windward slopes in many areas, creating deep deposits far downslope in leeward areas. These areas should be avoided until the storm snow has a chance to bond.

The mid snowpack is made up of a series of crusts with moist snow between. The lower snowpack is well-settled with no layers of concern.

Total snow depths at treeline vary across Vancouver Island, from 230 cm near Mt. Washington, to 130 cm near Mt Cain.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Cloudy, 2 to 10 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southeast switching to southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with 3 to 11 cm of snow. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with 10 to 30 cm of snow / moderate to heavy rain. 60 to 80 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level around 1300 m. Freezing level rising to 1200 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 10 to 25 cm of snow / moderate to heavy rain. 50 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3 °C. Freezing level rising to 2000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.