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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 25th, 2024–Jan 26th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk, Dogtooth, West Purcell.

A complex snowpack with several avalanche problems is best managed through conservative terrain choices. Avoid overhead hazard.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous human-triggered persistent slab avalanches have been reported up to size 2 (large) at alpine and treeline elevations. Several were remotely triggered.

Wind slabs have been reactive naturally and to human triggers, up to size 2.5 on north to east aspects in the alpine.

Large avalanches on deep weak layers have been observed throughout the region; size 3 naturals on north aspects in the northern Selkirks and artificially triggered size 2-3.5 in the Purcells.

Snowpack Summary

15 to 30 cm of recent snow sits on facets formed during the mid January cold snap. At upper elevations, the recent snow has been redistributed by wind.

The mid pack contains a few layers of concern. A surface hoar/facet/crust layer formed in early January is now buried 60 to 80 cm deep and has produced recent avalanches.

Another surface hoar layer that was buried in early December is now 130+ cm deep. This layer has been of most concern above 2000 m where a robust crust doesn't exist above it, or in shallow snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is characterized by weak basal facets. Avalanches on this layer have been large and destructive.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Mostly cloudy with flurries brining up to 5 cm of new snow. South alpine wind 30-40 km/h. Treeline temperature -2 °C.

Friday

A mix of sun and cloud. South alpine wind 40 km/h. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with flurries brining a trace of new snow. Southwest alpine wind 30-40 km/h. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with flurries brining up to 5 cm of new snow. Southwest alpine wind 40-60 km/h. Treeline temperature +2 °C. Freezing level 2400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.