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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 16th, 2024–Feb 17th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Chic-Choc Mountains.

Wind slabs of varying density and thickness can be found in the alpine and at the treeline, and will need some time to stabilize.

In places, they rest directly on a very firm crust that provides an excellent sliding surface.

Take time to analyze freshly wind-loaded slopes before you set off.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A size 1 avalanche was reported by Chic-Chac guides on a northern aspect of Mount Lyall.

If you go into the backcountry, thanks for sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network (MIN).

Snowpack Summary

In areas sheltered from the wind, you can find between 10 and 20 cm of very low density snow. Sectors closer to the north coast were favoured. At Les Mines Madeleine, for example, more than 25 cm of new snow fell.

Below 500m altitude, this new snow rests on a refreezing crust that had formed on Monday. The crust thickens and hardens as we lose altitude. On sunny slopes, the crust is present up to 1000m. On sunny alpine slopes, the crust is very firm, and ski crampons are essential.

The middle of the snowpack is well consolidated, resting on the December 30 combo of facetted grains and crust. Facetted grains and deep frost develop at the base of the snowpack.

Snowpack height is highly variable across the zone, and wind effects are strong in the alpine and at the treeline. The average height is around 100 cm.

Weather Summary

Synopsis: Under the influence of a high-pressure ridge, little or no precipitation and rather cold weather for the next few days.

Friday evening and night: Mostly cloudy. Wind northwest, 20-30 km/h. Low -17.

Saturday: Alternating sun and clouds. Wind northwest, 10 to 20 km/h. High -12.

Sunday: Sunny. Wind west, 20 to 40 km/h. High -15.

Monday: Alternating sun and cloud. Wind northwest, 30 to 50 km/h. High -12.

For more details, check out the most recent alpine weather forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Use appropriate sluff management techniques.
  • Even a small avalanche can be harmful if it pushes you into an obstacle or a terrain trap.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.