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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 8th, 2024–Feb 9th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Expect loose dry sluffing in steep terrain and which will run fast where a crust is present.

Good skiing in the alpine rapidly deteriorates below 2000m with moist snow, old avalanche debris and a record low snowpack.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Midday on Wednesday, a cycle of natural and skier triggered loose dry avalanches were observed in the Connaught valley.

A group bootpacking a couloir on the S side of Avalanche Mtn triggered a sz 2.5-3 avalanche yesterday. Use caution in this extreme terrain, where the snowpack might be variable and weak.

Spring-like temperatures and rain last week triggered a widespread avalanche cycle. Many avalanches gouged to ground in gully features and reached the valley floor.

Snowpack Summary

15-20cm of new snow sits over a robust crust that formed during recent warm weather. This crust becomes thin and tapers out above 2500m.

Below 2000m the new snow has become moist and heavy, as it cools there will be a breakable surface crust. This, plus refrozen avalanche debris and shallow snowpack hazards make for RUGGED travel below treeline

Warm temperatures have rounded and strengthened the mid and lower snowpack.

Weather Summary

Expect convective flurries and a mix of sun and cloud Fri/Sat as we get into a clearing trend.

Tonight: Cloudy with clear periods, Trace amounts, Alp low -12°C, light winds, Freezing Level (FZL) 500m.

Fri: Sun/cloud, Alp high -10°C, light NW winds, FZL 900m.

Sat: Cloudy/Sun, nil precip, Alp high -6°C, West wind 15 km/hr, FZL 900m.

Sun: Cloudy, isolated flurries, 9cms, Alp high -5°C, , FZL 1300m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.