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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 26th, 2024–Jan 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal, Boundary, Kitimat, Nass, Rupert, Seven Sisters, Shames, Stewart, Howson, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw, Ningunsaw.

Heavy precipitation and warm temperatures may overload weak layers in the snowpack. Higher precipitation amounts may drive hazard to HIGH near Stewart and Ningunsaw.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Friday: Several small loose wet avalanches were observed in the Shames Mountain backcountry.

Thursday: Two small natural and rider triggered wet slabs were observed.

Wednesday: Several naturally-triggered large (size 2) avalanches were observed in the Bear Pass area.

The potential for both natural and human-triggered avalanches is set to increase as the incoming storm affects the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is moist or wet at treeline elevations and below. 10-15 cm of precipitation has fallen south of the Nass Valley and around Terrace. 30-50 cm has fallen near Stewart and Ningunsaw. There is potential for this accumulated storm snow and rain to overload buried weak layers

A layer of surface hoar and facets has been found around 30 cm deep at treeline and below in isolated areas. A 15 cm thick hard crust is 30-50 cm deep at treeline elevations. These layers have become unlikely to trigger, but there is potential for the warm temperatures and new precipitation to overload these deeper layers triggering large avalanches.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Cloudy with 5-10 cm of new snow / moderate rain near Terrace, 10-20 cm near Stewart and Ningusaw / heavy rain, southwest alpine wind 30-40 km/h, treeline low 0 °C, freezing level 1100-1500 m

Saturday

Cloudy with 7-15 cm of snow in the alpine / moderate to heavy rain below, southwest alpine wind 55-75 km/h, treeline high of 1 °C, freezing level 1500m

Sunday

Cloudy with 15-30 cm snow / moderate to heavy rain, southerly alpine wind 75-80 km/h, treeline high of 3 °C, freezing level 1500-1800 m.

Monday

Cloudy with 5-10 cm of new snow / moderate to heavy rain, southerly alpine wind 70-80 km/h, treeline high of 3 °C, freezing level between 1500-1800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.