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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2024–Feb 2nd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla.

Danger is gradually decreasing with cooling temperatures, but there is enough uncertainty in the snowpack to warrant a conservative approach to avalanche terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Rain and warming caused a natural avalanche cycle earlier this week that included persistent slab, wet slab, and wet loose avalanches ranging from size 1 to 2.5. Activity slowed down on Wednesday with mostly small wet loose avalanches reported. The cooling trend will reduce the likelihood of avalanches, with some uncertainty about whether persistent slab avalanches are still possible.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions are gradually changing. A cooling trend will form a breakable crust at treeline and alpine elevations, while moist snow will remain at lower elevations. Light amounts of dry snow will accumulate over the next few days.

The recent heatwave increased the reactivity of a 30 to 60 cm deep facet and surface hoar layer, as well as a 80 to 100 cm deep facet layer above a crust. The cooling trend will likely strengthen these layers, but there is some uncertainty about how quickly this will occur and whether there will still be some isolated areas of concern.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow above 1800 m in the Monashees and a trace in the Selkirks and Purcells, alpine wind south 20 km/h, treeline temperature around 0 °C with freezing level gradually dropping.

Friday

Cloudy with up to 5 cm of snow above 1500 m in the Selkirks (less in the Monashees and Purcells), alpine wind north 20 km/h, treeline temperature around -2 °C with freezing level gradually dropping to 1700 m.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with 1 to 3 cm of snow in the Monashees and Selkirks and 5 to 10 cm in the Purcells, alpine wind northeast 30 km/h, treeline temperature -3 °C.

Sunday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow, alpine wind southeast 15 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.