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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2023–Dec 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos, North Columbia, South Columbia, Clearwater, Quesnel, Jordan, Gold.

Make conservative terrain choices. Recent storm snow and buried weak layers may be reactive to human triggering.

Reduce your exposure to avalanche terrain if the temperature is above 0°C.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, explosive control in the Monashees produced a size 2 storm slab at treeline. A MIN report from Yanks Peak describes a remotely triggering avalanche from the base of a concave feature.

Natural avalanche activity has tapered, but human-triggered avalanches remain possible at higher elevations, particularly where slabs sit over the weak surface hoar.

Whumpfing has been observed throughout this region - this is a sure sign of instability on a buried weak layer!

Snowpack Summary

The recent 30-40 cm of storm snow has likely been redistributed into deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes at higher elevations. This sits over a rain crust that has been observed to ridgeline in most areas.

A layer of surface hoar is now buried 50-80 cm deep. The recent rain crust is thought to limit avalanches on this persistent weak layer. However, it may be possible to trigger this in isolated terrain features, or for small avalanches to step down to this layer.

The lower snowpack is a mix of rounded and faceted grains. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 60 and 100 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Mainly clear. Alpine wind light and variable. Treeline temperature around -9 C.

Tuesday

Mainly sunny with valley cloud. Alpine wind 15 to 30 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperature around -5 C.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine wind 40 to 90 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperatures around -4 C .

Thursday

Cloudy with snowfall, 5 to 10 cm of accumulation. Alpine wind 10 to 30 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperature around -7 C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Use careful route-finding and stick to moderate slope angles with low consequences.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.