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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2023–Jan 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Start on small slopes, and see how the new snow is bonding to the old surface before venturing into bigger or more committing terrain. Expect snowfall amounts to vary across the forecast area.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Very little avalanche activity was reported on Sunday or Monday, but expect natural and human triggered avalanches to be more likely on Tuesday in areas that receive significant new snow.

On Friday and Saturday, numerous, small, skier triggered wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain around treeline.

Snowpack Summary

Variable snowfall across the island will build new storm slabs over the next couple of days. This may sit on top of dry, settled snow at the highest elevations, a frozen crust somewhere in the 1500 to 1000 m elevation band, and moist or wet snow below treeline.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cutbanks, and alpine-like features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Cloudy. Possible trace of snow. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Light southwest wind, increasing to moderate through the day. Snow/rain line around 1000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. 2-10 cm of snow expected. 10-15 cm on the western slopes of the island. Light south alpine winds becoming strong through the day. Freezing level around 900m.

Wednesday

Cloudy morning, possible sunny afternoon. 10-25 cm of snow expected overnight. Strong south alpine winds becoming moderate northwest through the day. Alpine temperature around -3ºC.

Thursday

Clear overnight, cloudy again by the afternoon. No new snow expected. Light northwest wind. Alpine temperature around -3ºC.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.