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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 17th, 2023–Jan 18th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

*UPDATE 6:10 AM* Upwards of 50 cm fell in 12 hours on parts of the island! But not everywhere. Treat avalanche danger as HIGH and avoid avalanche terrain if you encounter 30 cm or more new snow. Use a conservative mindset and expect reactive avalanche conditions everywhere else.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since freezing levels dropped following the wet and warm storm at the end of last week.

The new storm snow is expected to be reactive on Wednesday, especially in wind-exposed terrain.

Snowpack Summary

20 to 50 cm of new storm snow has fallen on dry, settled snow above 1500 m, a melt-freeze crust in the 1000-1500 m elevation band, and moist or wet snow below 1000 m. There is a lot of uncertainty as to how well this new snow will bond to the old surface at each of these elevation bands.

Snowpack depths at treeline are around 100 cm, tapering quickly with elevation. Although the snowpack in most forested areas below treeline remains below threshold depths for avalanches, many steep bluffs, cut-banks, and alpine-like features in the upper below treeline band are capable of producing avalanches.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Snowfall 20-40 cm with highest amounts along the immediate west coast, strong S-SW wind, freezing level around 1000 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with lingering flurries in the morning, a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon, light to moderate wind shifting from the SW to NW, freezing level around 800 m.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud, light NW wind, freezing level around 800 m.

Friday

Mainly cloudy, moderate SW wind, freezing level 1000-1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 25cm of new snow.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.