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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2023–Jan 15th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Powell River, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sasquatch.

Though natural avalanche activity will taper off tomorrow human triggered avalanche activity remains likely.

The storm brought a mix of rain and snow to higher elevations. As you transition into dry snow and wind-blown areas watch for cohesive storm slabs that are reactive to human triggering.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, explosives control resulted in numerous storm slab avalanches to size 2. A few natural storm slabs including a natural cornice-triggered storm slab to size 2 were also reported.

On Thursday, a skier accidental, size 1, storm slab avalanche was observed on Disease Ridge. Storm slab avalanches were reactive to explosives and human triggering up to size 1.5.

On Tuesday, a large storm slab avalanche was triggered by a skier on Metal Dome on an open east-facing slope at treeline. Another skier-accidental avalanche was reported to have failed within the storm snow near Oboe on a northwest slope.

Please continue to post your observations and photos to the Mountain Information Network. It helps strengthen our data gathering.

Snowpack Summary

+40 cm of new snow and strong southerly winds have built deep storm slabs in lees. New snow overlies previous wind-affected surfaces in alpine and open treeline terrain. Below 1700 m precipitation fell as rain saturating the snowpack.

A thick widespread crust formed in late December is down 60 to 90 cm. In the alpine, it is thin and breakable. Professionals are concerned that small avalanches may run down to this crust and create larger-than-expected avalanches.

Near the base of the snowpack, a weak facet/crust layer from mid-November can be found and remains a concern for triggering with large loads or on thin spots. In general, the snowpack is shallow.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Periods of rain or snow continue, 10 to 15 mm. Winds will ease to southerly 40 km/h. Ridgetop low-temperature -1 C. Freezing levels will slowly fall to near 1500 m by Saturday morning.

Saturday

Cloudy with sunny periods and flurries easing by mid-morning, 5 mm. Southeast winds of 40 to 60 km/h. Ridgetop high-temperature -1 C. Freezing levels will be near 1500 m.

Sunday

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries, 5 mm. Light variable winds gusting 20 km/h. Ridgetop high-temperature -1 C. Freezing levels 1500 m.

Overnight rain changes to snow, 10 mm. Freezing levels will fall to 1000 m by Monday morning.

Monday

Cloudy with sunny periods, with isolated flurries, 5 mm. Light variable winds gusting 20 km/h. Ridgetop high-temperature -3 C. Freezing levels 1000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • In times of uncertainty conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
  • Watch for unstable snow on specific terrain features, especially when the snow is moist or wet.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.