Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2026–Jan 5th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Esplanade, Dogtooth.

Recent snow may not bond well to previous surfaces. Expect to find more reactive deposits around ridges and steep rolls.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, riders reported dry loose sluffing within the recent storm snow. Natural storm slab avalanches to size 2 were reported in Glacier National Park.

Last Wednesday, near Golden, a size 2.5 avalanche was reported, likely triggered by warming alpine temperatures and strong solar input. The slide released on a steep, wind-loaded, ridgetop slope with a generally shallow snowpack. See MIN report here.

Snowpack Summary

Around 15 cm of new snow covers a variety of old surfaces, including surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain and a sun crust on steep south-facing slopes.

In the mid-snowpack, a melt-freeze crust exists that was buried in mid-December. This layer is most prevalent at treeline elevations and below.

The lower snowpack consists of a thick melt-freeze crust, with weak faceted snow and/or depth hoar near the ground in areas.

Snow depths vary widely across the region, averaging roughly 100 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Sunday night

Mostly cloudy. Up to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy. Up to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy. 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 300 m.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and clouds. Up to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C. Freezing level 300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Keep your guard up as storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.
Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.