Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2025–Dec 27th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Don't let blue skies & powder lure you into consequential terrain

Be mindful that deep instabilities still exist in the snowpack

Seek out good riding in sheltered terrain with no wind effect

Confidence

Moderate

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, large, naturally triggered deep persistent slab avalanches were observed on north-facing slopes, suspected to have occurred sometime on Sunday. These failed on a deep persistent weak layer down 1-2 m, and some stepped down to the ground.

Check out this MIN from our field team.

Otherwise, no new avalanches have been reported, but observations are extremely limited in the region.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15 cm is forecast to fall in the region by mid-morning on Saturday. This adds to approximately 10 to 20 cm of recent storm snow in the region. Combined with moderate shifting winds, this new snow is expected to form wind slabs at upper elevations.

Up to 10 mm of rain on Wednesday night formed a thin crust that reached at least treeline areas across much of the region. New wind slabs may not bond well to this crust.

A deep persistent weak layer consisting of a prominent crust, with 10 cm of facets on top, is buried 120 to 180 cm deep in terrain above 1800 m. Triggering this layer could have very severe consequences.

Weather Summary

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -18 °C.

Sunday
Mostly sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Monday
Mostly sunny. 35 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
Recent wind has varied in direction, so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
Avoid thin areas like rocky outcrops where you're most likely to trigger avalanches on deep weak layers.
Use conservative route selection and resist venturing into complex terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.