Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2026–Jan 4th, 2026

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Rockies, East Kakwa, Kakwa, Pine Pass, Tumbler.

Watch for storm slabs building throughout the day.

Stick to conservative terrain, very large avalanches have occurred in the region.

Confidence

Moderate

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Uncertainty is due to whether buried persistent weak layers become active, triggering avalanches, with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

Jan 2

Explosive control produced a few size 1.5 slabs in steep treeline terrain.

Dec 31

A very large naturally-triggered size 3.5 avalanche failed on the persistent weak layer.

Dec 30

A large (Size 2.5) remotely triggered persistent slab avalanche was reported in the Bullmoose riding area, near Tumbler Ridge. See the MIN for more details
A widespread natural avalanche cycle was reported in the Tumbler Ridge area, with avalanches up to size 2.5 on a variety of aspects.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfall has been blown into slabs in leeward alpine and treeline terrain by winds from variable directions.
An additional 5 to 20 cm is forecast for the region by Sunday afternoon, with the highest snow amounts set to fall in the western Kakwa area.

A persistent weak layer formed in mid-December that consists of a prominent crust with weak facets, was the cause of a recent large natural avalanche cycle. This layer is now buried 50 to 170 cm deep, depending on the aspect and wind loading.

In thin snowpack areas, faceted grains or depth hoar may exist at the base of the snowpack.

Check out this MIN post from the field team for more details on conditions in Pine Pass.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 10 cm of snow. 15km/h variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -17 °C.

Sunday
Cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 25 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Monday
Mix of sun and clouds. 2 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

Tuesday
Cloudy. 10 to 25 cm of snow. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.