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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2024–Mar 19th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Very large persistent slab avalanches remain likely to human trigger, especially at treeline and above.

Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered wet loose avalanches were reported on sunny aspects at all elevations on Sunday.

Snowpack Summary

A weak surface crust forming overnight will break down quickly throughout the day.

Cornices have become large and looming, and are more likely to fail during periods of warming.

A widespread, hard crust down 80-200 cm with weak facets above continues to be the primary layer of concern for natural and human triggering of very large persistent slab avalanches.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Clear skies. 30 to 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Tuesday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2500 m.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with flurries, 3 to 5 cm of snow (above 1400m). 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.