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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2025–Feb 27th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Warming will seriously test the snowpack in the coming days and will likely produce destructive slab avalanches. It might feel like spring, but the snowpack is far from settled.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported Tuesday.

On Monday, avalanche activity reached size 2.5, with natural avalanches occurring during heavy snowfall and strong winds. Avalanches were triggered within the storm snow and on buried weak layers.

Check out this MIN report of a remotely triggered avalanche near Cranbrook. Photo below

While natural activity is expected to taper off, human triggering remains a concern.

Snowpack Summary

By Thursday, a new melt-freeze crust should glaze the surface on solar aspects and below about 1800 m. The depth of affected snow should increase over the coming days, although crust recovery may be weak. This process will affect 30 to 60 cm of settling recent snow, which is wind-affected at higher elevations. About half of it overlies a crust formed early in the storm. It otherwise overlies faceted snow.

A persistent weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm deep. This weak layer is expected to remain reactive as forecast warming tests the snowpack. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled.

Check out this MIN for an overview of conditions around Tunnel Creek.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Increasingly clear. 30 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, increasing. Freezing level to 1200 m.

Thursday

Sunny with possible valley cloud. 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, up to 90 km/h in high alpine. Freezing level rising to 2200 m, remaining elevated overnight. Treeline temperature around 2 °C.

Friday

Sunny. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 2500 m. Treeline temperature 5 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 3000 m. Treeline temperature 6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.