Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2025–Mar 1st, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

This weekend will be warm, sunny, and it might feel like spring - but don’t be fooled. The snowpack is already stressed by rising temperatures, recent wind loading, and solar input.

Avoid sun-exposed slopes, watch for overhead hazards, and make conservative choices.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

Local natural avalanche activity has slowed down, though field teams are still finding signs of a large avalanche cycle across the bulletin region. Our nearest neighbors continue to observe natural size 2 to size 3 persistent slab avalanches.

The warm weather this weekend will further destabilize the already weak snowpack. Serious avalanche conditions remain, even if signs are not always obvious.

Snowpack Summary

The Icefields received 10 cm of snow Thursday morning, redistributed by strong westerly winds, creating wind loading lower on the slopes while stripping snow from the alpine and heavily affecting exposed treeline areas.

Last weekend’s 10-20 cm of snow sits over a layer of weak facets from the February drought, resting on old wind slabs, crusts, or depth hoar. Below 1600 m, warm temperatures and rain have saturated the weak snowpack.

Weather Summary

Expect to see spring-like weather this weekend with lots of sun and freezing levels rising to at least 2200m. The westerly winds have decreased but still within the 20-40 km/h range at ridgetop.

Freezing levels will still be around 2000m on Sunday but expect to see a small dip in temperatures with the potential for a little more snow.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.
Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.