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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2021–Jan 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Mother Nature planted a warm, wet smooch on Rogers Pass last night.

30cm of new snow, mild temps, and strong/extreme SW winds have formed touchy storm slabs that are currently driving a natural avalanche cycle.

Weather Forecast

End of the storm this am, then a ridge will bring clearing skies and cooler temps.

Today: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, FZL 1200m dropping during day, mod to extreme W winds at ridge-top

Tonight: Cloudy with clear periods, Alp low -14*C, mod/strong W winds

Thurs: Sunny periods, Alp high -3*C, mod SW winds

Fri: flurries, 5cm, Alp high -4*C, mod W winds

Snowpack Summary

A 35-40cm storm slab is covering a thin crust from sun and/or rime in exposed terrain, as well as surface hoar up to 10mm in the sheltered areas at treeline and below. The spotty Dec 26 surface hoar is down 70-90cm. The Dec 7th surface hoar/suncrust/facet layer is down 1.5+m. Crusts with facets persist at the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is underway in Rogers Pass, with large avalanches to sz 3.5 running into the valleys. Artillery control has also produced avalanches to sz 3.5 along the highway corridor.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.