Avalanche forecast

North Rockies

Jan 9 – 10, 2022Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 5 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
Open full map

Highlights

Snowfall may be taper today but human triggering remains likely. Head out with a conservative mindset and avoid wind-loaded areas.

 If you see greater than 25 cm of new snow, treat the avalanche danger as HIGH.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    In areas that receive 25 cm or more overnight, storm slabs may be widespread and reactive to human triggering. In sheltered areas, the storm snow may form a touchy loose dry problem where it overlies an old hard surface or near-surface faceting from previous cold temperatures.

    In areas that receive less new snow, strong southwest winds will likely redistribute the new snow into slabs in north-east facing lee areas.

    Rising temperatures throughout the day may promote rapid settlement and slab formation. Although snowfall is tapering on Sunday, diligently watch for changing conditions as a rapid rise in temperatures could increase the likelihood of natural and human triggered avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

A juicy warm front impacting the coast will bring moderate snowfall overnight on Saturday, strong southwest winds and rising temperatures.

Saturday Overnight: Snowing, 10-20 cm of accumulation. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Alpine temperatures rising to around -13 C.

Sunday: Snowfall tapering, up to 5 cm accumulation. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Alpine temperatures around -8 C.

Monday: Partially cloudy, light flurries. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing levels around 500m with the potential for an above freezing layer to develop between 1500-2000m

Tuesday: Snowing, trace to 10 cm accumulation. Strong southwest winds. Freezing levels rising to 1300 m.

Avalanche Summary

Observations have been limited due to the cold conditions. If you are out in the mountains, let us know what you see by filling out a Mountain Information Network report! 

Snowpack Summary

Overnight, snowfall and strong southwest winds will have created fresh, reactive slabs in wind-loaded areas. In areas that have received 25cm or more overnight, new snow may form a reactive storm slab or loose dry problem in sheltered areas.

This storm's 10-30 cm of new snow overlies a previously wind-affected surface comprised of old hard wind slabs, sastrugi, and areas stripped back to the ground or old crusts. Near-surface faceting above the old surface may increase the reactivity of newly formed storm slabs.

A crust that was formed at treeline elevations and below in early December has been reported in parts of this region. It can be found down 50-100 cm. There have been no recent reports of avalanches on this layer. While the layer is now dormant in the region, a large amount of new snow or warming temperatures have the potential to wake it up, and wind slab avalanches may still have the potential to step down to this layer in isolated areas. 

The base of the snowpack is composed of crusts and weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas east of the divide. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.

Regions covered