Avalanche forecast

Vancouver Island

Jan 20 – 21, 2022Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 5 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

The storm is expected to produce rainfall to mountain top elevations overnight but some new snow may accumulate in the high alpine on Thursday as freezing levels drop. If you find new snow up high, watch for wind slabs in leeward features. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rain is generally expected to mountain top elevations overnight but snowfall is possible in the high alpine on Thursday as freezing levels drop during the day. If you find new snow, wind slabs should be expected in lee features. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Another rain event is not expected to have much of an impact on a snowpack that has already been rain-soaked but wet loose avalanches are possible on very steep slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

A storm system impacts to the coast Wednesday night and Thursday before a warm ridge of high pressure establishes on Friday. 

Wednesday Night: Precipitation 15-30 mm, wind becoming strong SW, freezing levels reaching around 2600 m. 

Thursday: Precipitation 5-15 mm, strong W wind, freezing levels 2500 m dropping to around 1200 m through the day.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels climbing to around 3000 m. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread crust is now expected where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this crust, snow is moist down 25-50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Regions covered