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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2022–Jan 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

The storm is expected to produce rainfall to mountain top elevations overnight but some new snow may accumulate in the high alpine on Thursday as freezing levels drop. If you find new snow up high, watch for wind slabs in leeward features. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

A storm system impacts to the coast Wednesday night and Thursday before a warm ridge of high pressure establishes on Friday. 

Wednesday Night: Precipitation 15-30 mm, wind becoming strong SW, freezing levels reaching around 2600 m. 

Thursday: Precipitation 5-15 mm, strong W wind, freezing levels 2500 m dropping to around 1200 m through the day.

Friday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels climbing to around 3000 m. 

Saturday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels around 3200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity have been reported over the last few days.

Observations remain limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to mountain top elevations and a widespread crust is now expected where the snow surface has refrozen. Below this crust, snow is moist down 25-50 cm and several old crusts are now breaking down. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong, consisting of well bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.