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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2022–Feb 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Be conservative with your terrain choices. Recent, warm, stormy weather brought rapid change to the snowpack. As temperatures drop, the hazard ratings should improve, but mountain travel could become very challenging.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected at higher elevations. Strong west wind. Freezing level around 1000 m. Alpine low around -3 C.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with the potential for afternoon clearing. Possible trace of snow expected. Strong northwest wind, decreasing to moderate through the day. Freezing level dropping to around 800 m.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. No new snow expected. Moderate southwest wind trending to strong west in the afternoon. Freezing levels rise to 1600 m. 

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy by the afternoon. Light snow/rain expected. Moderate to strong west wind. Freezing levels around 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, we expect that heavy precipitation, rising freezing levels, and strong wind caused a widespread natural avalanche cycle. No new avalanches were reported as of 4 pm.

On Monday, several natural and rider triggered wind and storm slab avalanches were reported across the region up to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

A wet, warm, rainy storm on Wednesday soaked the upper snowpack up to mountaintop in much of the region. With freezing levels forecasted to drop back down to 1000 m or lower, expect a supportive surface crust to form, making for challenging travel conditions. Consider the consequences of slipping or falling on a steep, firm slope. 

At elevations that did not see as much rain, expect the new snow to have formed reactive windslabs in lee terrain due to consistently strong south through west winds. 

Down 60-100 cm, you may find a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.

Deeper in the snowpack, another surface hoar layer from mid-January may be found around 80 to 120 cm deep at higher elevations in sheltered terrain. This layer is most problematic where it overlies a hard melt-freeze crust.

Terrain and Travel

  • Although their spatial distribution is isolated, wind slabs are reactive.
  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.