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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Use caution as you approach bigger terrain features on Friday, we are at the tail end of an extremely active week of large natural and artillery controlled avalanches.

Weather Forecast

Break in the weather tonight and Friday, with slowly dropping freezing levels.  Precipitation returns for the weekend.

Tonight: Cloudy/Clear, Alp low -5*C, Light W winds

Fri: Cloudy with flurries, Trace of snow,  Alp high -4*C, fzl rising to 1400m, mod SW winds

Sat: Flurries, 9cm, Alp high -6*C, fzl 1300m, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs have formed in the ~45cm of storm snow, with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds. Observations of dense storm/wind slabs in exposed terrain features in the Alpine and TL. These have buried a Jan11 surface hoar layer observed up to 4-6mm, found at treeline and below treeline.

The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural cycle of avalanches up to size 4 on Wednesday night, failing in the storm snow.

On Tuesday, we had natural and artillery controlled avalanches up to size 3.5, reaching end of runouts with lrg dust components. These avalanches were mostly failing in the storm snow, with a few observations of deeper slabs at treeline.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.