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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 6th, 2022–Feb 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Stormy conditions have the potential of triggering an avalanche cycle.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 700 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 800 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snow and rain, accumulation 20 to 30 cm above 1200 m and rain below, 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1200 m.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 20 to 40 mm, 70 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 1 C, freezing level 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

There's many reports of a widespread natural avalanche cycle that occurred during stormy weather on Thursday to Friday. On Saturday, more storm and wind slab avalanches were triggered by explosives, generally being large (size 2 to 2.5) and about 50 cm deep within recent snow. At low elevations, wet loose avalanches were observed.

Looking forward, a natural avalanche cycle may occur overnight Sunday into Monday during periods of rapid loading from snow and wind.

Snowpack Summary

Above 800 m, anywhere from 20 to 40 cm of snow is expected to accumulated by Monday afternoon with strong southwest wind. This snow will form new storm slabs in areas sheltered from the wind and new wind slabs in exposed terrain. Below 800 m, the precipitation will fall as rain, soaking an already wet snowpack.

The snow will sit on previous storm snow that has totaled around 40 to 60 cm since early February above around 1000 m. This snow may sit on a weak layer of surface hoar crystals, particularly around treeline elevations in terrain features sheltered from the wind. This layer may be found immediately above a hard melt-freeze crust.

Deeper in the snowpack, another surface hoar layer from mid-January may be found around 80 to 120 cm deep at higher elevations in sheltered terrain. This layer is becoming harder to trigger but is most problematic where it overlies a hard melt-freeze crust.

Terrain and Travel

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.