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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

New slabs are expected to form on Thursday night, which may remain reactive over the course of the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall then clearing, accumulation 5 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -10 C.

SUNDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clear skies, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level rising to 2100 m.

Avalanche Summary

A few small storm slab avalanches were observed on Wednesday, but activity has quieted down substantially compared to earlier in the week. Avalanche activity may increase on Friday as the result of Thursday night's storm.

Snowpack Summary

Thursday night's storm is expected to deposit anywhere from 15 to 30 cm across the region. This snow may form new storm slabs in sheltered terrain features and wind slabs in lee terrain features from strong southwest wind. This snow builds on the 100+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains formed late-December. Reports suggest that this storm snow is beginning to bond to the snowpack.

Around 150 to 250 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The last observed avalanche on this layer was around December 24, suggesting that this layer has become dormant. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.