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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2022–Feb 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Sunday's overnight dump (50cm) sits atop surface hoar or a suncrust. These storm slabs will be reactive to human loads and may propagate widely.

Conservative choices are wise; even gladed tree runs aren't the usual safe havens.

Weather Forecast

Flurries and a mix of sun/cloud, followed by cold air Wed

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, trace amounts, Alp low -15*C, gusty mod W winds

Tues: Mix of sun/cloud with flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -15*C, light N winds

Wed: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -19*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -9*C, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

50cm from Sunday now buries the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm) and crusts on steep solar aspects. Expect to find storm slab at all elevations, deeper in wind-deposited areas at Alpine and Treeline elevations. The Jan 20 surface hoar (2-4mm) is down 60-70cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control Sunday night/Monday morning produced numerous avalanches to sz 3-3.5 in the park.

The natural avalanche cycle continues to be driven by mod/strong winds in the Alpine redistributing the new snow and overloading the Jan 29th surface hoar/suncrust layer. This layer exists at all elevations/all aspects and will persist for a while.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.