Avalanche forecast

Glacier

Feb 1 – 2, 2022
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Sunday's overnight dump (50cm) sits atop surface hoar or a suncrust. These storm slabs will be reactive to human loads and may propagate widely.

Conservative choices are wise; even gladed tree runs aren't the usual safe havens.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3.5

    Several surface hoar layers in the upper snowpack may wake up with the new snow load. If triggered, there is potential to step down to the deeper Dec 1 crust/facet layer, resulting in a very large avalanche.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2

    The new snow has buried the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm) and will likely be easy to trigger, especially in steeper, unsupported terrain. Manage your sluff appropriately, especially in gullies and with people above/below you.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    50cm of new snow and mod W'ly winds have buried the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm), which is a crust on steep solar aspects and hard surfaces everywhere else. This layer will be easy to trigger and could step down to deeper layers.

Weather Forecast

Flurries and a mix of sun/cloud, followed by cold air Wed

Tonight: Cloudy with flurries, trace amounts, Alp low -15*C, gusty mod W winds

Tues: Mix of sun/cloud with flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -15*C, light N winds

Wed: Mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -19*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Cloudy with flurries, trace amounts, Alp high -9*C, light SW winds

Snowpack Summary

50cm from Sunday now buries the Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm) and crusts on steep solar aspects. Expect to find storm slab at all elevations, deeper in wind-deposited areas at Alpine and Treeline elevations. The Jan 20 surface hoar (2-4mm) is down 60-70cm. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5 - 2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control Sunday night/Monday morning produced numerous avalanches to sz 3-3.5 in the park.

The natural avalanche cycle continues to be driven by mod/strong winds in the Alpine redistributing the new snow and overloading the Jan 29th surface hoar/suncrust layer. This layer exists at all elevations/all aspects and will persist for a while.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Regions covered