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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2022–Jan 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Warm temperature, new precipitation and high wind will continue to develop wind slabs and increase the avalanche danger throughout the day.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

An unstable onshore flow will give flurries to the BC coast with showers below 1500 metres. 

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few clouds, no precipitation, 70-80 km/h south wind, treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level at 2200 m.

MONDAY: Periods of snow and rain beginning in the morning, accumulation 20 to 30 cm above 1500 m and rain below, 60-80 southwest wind, treeline temperature +2 C.

TUESDAY: Snow and rain mixed, accumulation 15 to 25 cm, 70-90 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature +3 C with freezing level at 1700 m.

WEDNESDAY: Rain, accumulation 20-40 mm, 70-80 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature +4 C with freezing level at 2500 m.

Avalanche Summary

Several wind slab avalanches were triggered naturally, by riders, and explosives in the last few days. They were generally 30 to 40 cm deep, on north aspects, and at treeline elevations. Below 1200 m, small pinwheels were observed out of steep terrain from Thursday night's rain.

We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may still be found in steep, lee terrain features, which formed from recent 40 to 60 cm of snow and strong southeast to southwest wind. The snow surface below about 1200 m consists of a hard melt-freeze crust from recent rain. This overlies 100+ cm of snow that accumulated since January 1, which reports suggest is bonding well to the snowpack.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.