Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2022–Jan 11th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

The next series of storms will get progressively warmer and windier. Danger ratings at all elevations will rise with this next pulse of weather.

Enjoy the "light-ish" powder Tuesday, it won't be so lovely Wednesday.

Weather Forecast

Things are about to get wet, wild, and warm.

Tonight: Flurries, 10cm, Alp low -7*C, mod SW winds

Tues: Snow, 10cm, Alp high -4*C, fzl rising to 1200m, mod/gusting strong SW winds

Wed: Snow, 35cm, Alp high 0*C, fzl rising to 1800m, strong SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 15cm, Alp high -2*C, fzl 1600m, mod/gusting strong W winds

Snowpack Summary

Warming temps and moderate SW winds are forming new surface slabs with the 60cm of recent low density snow. The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control produced several sz 1.5-2 soft slab avalanches, 30-40cm deep, at and below treeline today. Slabs were failing in the recent storm snow and not stepping down to deeper layers.

A field team in the Hermit area noted several small loose, dry point releases from ridge-top, as well as a small sz 1 wind slab on a moraine feature at 2200m

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.