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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2022–Feb 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

North Rockies.

Observe for the bond of the recent snow to previous surfaces before committing to consequential terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies with no precipitation, 10 to 20 km/h northwest wind, alpine temperature -24 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -20 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, 40 to 60 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -11 C.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

The recent snow was reactive on Monday, generally failing as small loose dry avalanches in steep terrain, but some observations of storm and wind slabs. 

Looking forward to the coming days, slab avalanche activity is expected to increase once the recent snow settles and forms a cohesive slab. Human triggering remains elevated, particularly where the snow sits on the surface hoar described in the snowpack summary.

Snowpack Summary

Around 15 to 30 cm of recent snow has accumulated, which may remain touchy to riders. The snow may sit on weak surface hoar crystals in areas sheltered from the wind, which may also sit above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes. Expect to find wind slabs in steep terrain at higher elevations, as the snow fell with strong wind from varying directions.

The lower snowpack is generally strong and well-bonded. The base of the snowpack is expected to be weak and faceted in shallow, rocky slopes east of the divide.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.