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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 14th, 2021–Nov 15th, 2021

Alpine
Widespread avalanches certain.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Avoid all avalanche terrain, just stay home, wax your boards, do your laundry, binge watch Lord of the Rings, etc.

Calm the early season stoke to get out... over 100cm in 48 hours with strong winds means the snowpack needs time to adjust.

Weather Forecast

The Atmospheric River is laying it on... thick!

Tonight a brief 'lull' with 14cm forecast, freezing levels steady around 1700m and wind 25 km/h from the SW with gusts to 60 km/h.

Monday could see another 45cm with freezing levels rising to 2000m and wind from the SW 40-60 km/h.

Tuesday, high pressure moves in bringing clearing skies and cooling temps.

Snowpack Summary

60cm in the past 24 hours! The new snow has fallen with moderate south winds and warm temperatures. Height of snow varies significantly with elevation from ~60cm @ Rogers Pass to ~200+cm in the Alpine. There are 2 prominent crusts to date, the Nov 5th buried ~70cm and the October crust that lies near the base of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Significant natural avalanche activity today from all aspects, with many avalanches large enough to bury a truck running down into valley bottoms. Expect this cycle to continue and grow in destructive potential as the snow continues to accumulate and winds spike.

Several large avalanches (sz 3-3.5) observed along the highway corridor.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.