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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 5th, 2021–Dec 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

AM update: If you see more than 30 cm of new snow, consider avalanche danger to be HIGH.

New snow will slide easily on the slippery crust. Touchy fresh slabs and loose dry avalanches may run surprisingly far and fast.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Highest snowfall amounts will be concentrated north of Gold River.

Sunday night: New snow 5-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -5.

Monday: New snow 10-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Treeline high temperatures around -4.

Tuesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate northwest wind shifting southwest. Treeline high temperatures around +1.

Wednesday: New snow 5-15 cm. Strong northwest wind. Treeline high temperatures around -1.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

15-30 cm of new low density snow falls on a thick crust at all elevations. Around treeline, the 5-10 cm crust is reportedly supportive to skis but not boots or sleds. Faceting has been observed on its underside.

Recent indications of the region's surviving snowpack suggest alpine depths around 150 cm, depth tapering dramatically with elevation to about 30-60 cm at treeline.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
  • Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
  • Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.