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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 21st, 2021–Dec 22nd, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Reactive wind slabs are our main concern with the current storm. Seek out sheltered terrain where the snow has not been wind-affected to find great riding.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

A low-pressure system over the Gulf of Alaska will slide southwards Tuesday. Moderate snow will intensify Tuesday afternoon throughout Wednesday, especially in the Northern part of the region. Arctic air will return late Thursday, with bitterly cold and drier conditions for the weekend.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Snow 5 cm / Strong west wind / Low of -12 at 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Snow 15-20 cm / Strong to extreme southwest wind / High of -7 at 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries / Moderate west wind / High of -14 at 2000 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy / Moderate southwest wind / High of -18 at 2000 m.

Avalanche Summary

Few natural dry loose avalanches were reported out of steep terrain (size 1). Old avalanche debris from the last storm were seen but no recent signs of avalanche activity.  

With the next storm, expect to see natural avalanches in specific areas. 

If you go out in the mountains, please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report.

Snowpack Summary

Strong alpine wind affected the recent storm snow (20-40 cm) in upper elevation, while cold temperature in the valley was prone to develop weak surface snow grains (surface hoar).

A facet/crust layer, developed in early December, is now buried between 60-100 cm down. This layer generally exists below 1800 m and is most concerning in the area west of Blue River. In some places, the crust starts to decompose and show sporadic test results.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.