Avalanche forecast

Lizard-Flathead

Apr 14 – 15, 2021Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 5 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

As freezing levels rise, the likelihood for large cornice failures and wet loose avalanches will increase. Start early and plan to be off large slopes before the heat of the day. 

Check out the latest Forecaster's Blog for more information on managing current conditions. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Watch for pockets of unstable snow on steep exposed slopes.

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Strong solar radiation and warming may trigger the large cornices that hang over ridgelines.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Expect natural wet loose avalanches to occur on solar aspects when the sun comes out.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

  

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear / Moderate, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature -3 / Freezing level 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Sunny / Light, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 6 / Freezing level 2300 m.

FRIDAY: Sunny / Light, northeast ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 8 / Freezing level 2500 m.

SATURDAY: Sunny / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature 10 / Freezing level 2800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered wet loose avalanches up to size 2.5 were reported near Fernie on Tuesday.

As freezing levels continue to rise and remain elevated overnight, the likelihood for large cornice failures and wet loose avalanches will increase. Cornice failures could trigger deeply buried weak layers on steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Lingering wind slabs may still be reactive on steep slopes in the alpine; especially on northerly aspects. All other terrain is undergoing a melt-freeze cycle with successive days of warm sunny weather. 

The snowpack is overall strong and settled, although intense warming could potentially weaken deeper layers in steep, rocky terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack. 

The snow line is slowly creeping up the mountains, making some access areas snow-free. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Extra caution is needed around cornices under the current conditions.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.

Regions covered