Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 20th, 2021–Apr 21st, 2021

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

One more day of warm sunny weather before cool cloudy weather arrives. Avoid sun-exposed slopes on Wednesday.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies, light northwest wind, freezing level drops to 1200 m with treeline temperatures dropping to -4 C.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny in the morning then increasing cloud in the afternoon, 30-40 km/h northwest wind, freezing level around 2200 m with treeline temperatures reaching +2 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, light north wind, freezing level drops to valley bottom with treeline temperatures dropping to -8 C.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy skies, light wind, freezing level climbs to 1800 m with treeline temperatures reaching -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

There have been no reports since the weekend. There was a natural cycle of size 1-3 wet loose avalanches on sun-exposed slopes during a period of above freezing temperatures between Thursday and Saturday. There were also some size 3 wet slab avalanches observed in the McBride area.

You can still expect wet loose avalanches and cornice falls on Wednesday, but they will be less widespread and destructive than they were over the weekend due to the relatively cooler temperatures and thicker surface crusts.

Snowpack Summary

A surface crust will form overnight and then gradually break down with daytime warming. Dry snow may still be found in high north-facing terrain (above roughly 2300 m). While there have been no recent avalanches on buried weak layers, there are a few layers that could potentially be triggered during periods of intense warming or by a heavy cornice fall. This includes a few crusts buried over the last month as well as a 150 cm deep facet layer from the mid-February cold snap.

Terrain and Travel

Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes, especially when the solar radiation is strong.
When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.