Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 25th, 2025–Dec 26th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie, Crowsnest South.

New snow & wind is forecast to build reactive slabs.

Validate conditions in the field:
If you see less than 15 cm of new snow in your area, the hazard may only be Moderate.

Confidence

Low

Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.
Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

Thursday, natural and explosive triggered slabs up to size 2 were observed in the Lizard Range.

Wednesday, explosive control triggered small storm slabs in the Lizard Range and small wind slabs near Castle Mtn.

Tuesday, natural and explosive triggered slabs up to size 1.5 were observed in the Lizard Range on wind-loaded alpine slopes.

Looking forward, wind slabs may be triggerable on Friday, especially if the forecast snow and wind occur.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 25 mm of precipitation is expected, primarily overnight Thursday. Freezing levels are uncertain, and it may fall as rain or snow at treeline. Where the precipitation falls as snow, we can expect fresh storm slabs.

Up to 15 mm of rain from Wednesday night formed a crust that reaches up into the low alpine across much of the region. This overlies 50 to 70 cm of settling snow that is generally bonding well to the mid-December crust.

Below the December crust, the snowpack is generally well settled and moist to the ground.

Below 1500 m, the snow surface may be moist or crusty, and rapidly diminishes with elevation.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Cloudy. 5 to 20 mm of rain or snow at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1900 m.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 0 to 5 cm of snow above 1500 m. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Saturday
Cloudy. 10 to 25 cm of snow, highest amounts in the Lizard Range. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -16 °C.

Sunday
Sunny. 30 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
Be alert to conditions that change with elevation, aspect, and exposure to wind.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind-loaded snow.
Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.