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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 24th, 2025–Dec 25th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Rockies, Bull, Crowsnest North, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Carefully assess steep slopes for fresh wind slabs before committing.

If triggered, wind slabs could step down to deeper layers, resulting in very large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Avalanche Summary

Large, naturally triggered deep persistent slab avalanches have been observed recently on north-facing slopes. These failed on a weak layer 1-2 m deep, and some have stepped down to the ground. See photos below.

Check out this MIN from our field team.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10 cm of new snow accompanied by strong southerly wind is expected overnight Wednesday. This falls over 50 to 80 cm of wind affected, settling snow that is generally bonding well to the mid December crust.

A deep persistent weak layer consisting of a prominent crust, with 10 cm of facets on top, is buried 120 to 180 cm deep in terrain above 1800 m.

At lower elevations, the mid and lower snowpack is moist to the ground.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night
Cloudy. 4 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -1 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1600 m.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 4 to 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1000 m.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy. 15 cm of snow. 20 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -16 °C. Freezing level 0 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind-loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and rollovers.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.