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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2020–Jan 12th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Recent storm snow is expected to  transition to Windslab as the Waterton winds return Friday. This Windslab may get buried by a heavy snowfall if forecast upslope conditions materialize on Saturday evening.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Scattered Flurries. Freezing level valley bottom with Moderate SW winds.

Saturday: Flurries with 1-5 cm of snow. SW winds increasing as temperatures drop rapidly saturday night. Potential for heavy snow overnight with upslope enhancement.

Sunday: Uncertain timing and intensity of incoming storm.10-50cm of snow with moderate -strong wind.

Snowpack Summary

Cameron lakes received 40cm of new snow over the past 48h. Windslabs & cornices are maturing creating the potential for larger avalanches as the load increases during the incoming storm on sunday. A crust down 10-30cm exists up to 1800m. The Middle of the snowpack is well settled but a weak facet/ melt freeze crust still lurks at base of snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Size 1- 1.5 Natural Windslabs observed in the alpine in the Cameron Lakes Drainage today.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.