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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 5th, 2022–Apr 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

The recent storm snow is expected to remain reactive to human triggering, especially in wind-loaded terrain. With extended sun exposure on Wednesday, any unconsolidated storm snow may settle into a more cohesive slab and become increasingly reactive. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings dry and sunny conditions for the morning but a storm system impacting the north coast is expected to result in increased cloud cover and a chance of flurries by Wednesday afternoon. 

Tuesday Night: Mainly clear, light variable wind, freezing level low around 700 m. 

Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, cloudy with a chance of flurries in the afternoon, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high around 1500 m.

Thursday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of sunny breaks in the afternoon, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high 2000-2500 m.

Thursday night: Light precipitation, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level dropping to around 1200 m.

Friday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries and sunny breaks, moderate NW wind, freezing level high around 1400 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Monday by there are very few observers this time of year. 

On Sunday, numerous natural and skier-triggered size 1 storm slabs were reported on northwest through northeast aspects at treeline. These were 10-20 cm thick and sliding on a melt-freeze crust. This MIN post reported a small natural avalanche as well as a remotely triggered wind slab avalanche which was 30 cm thick and sliding on the crust. This MIN post describes a small natural avalanche on a northeast aspect at 1100 m elevation. 

Observations are very limited this time of year. If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm is estimated to have produced 60-90 cm of new snow. This storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Recent observations suggest the new snow is relatively well bonded to this underlying crust. Strong to extreme southwest wind has redistributed this storm snow in exposed, high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs and building large cornices. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.