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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 2nd, 2022–Apr 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Heavy snowfall and strong winds are expected to quickly raise the danger to HIGH on Sunday. 

A solar-triggered avalanche cycle is also possible on Sunday afternoon if the sky clears and the sun is strong.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Stormy conditions are expected between Saturday night and Monday night expect for a brief period late Sunday afternoon when a break between systems is expected. Snowfall amounts are uncertain with weather models showing substantial variability. 

Saturday Night: Snowfall 10-20 cm, strong SW wind, freezing level low around 1000 m. 

Sunday: Snowfall 25-40 cm, sunny breaks in the late-afternoon, strong SW wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1200 m. 

Sunday night and Monday: Snowfall 50-80 cm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level high around 1300 m. 

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud, strong NW wind easing in the afternoon, freezing level high around 1100 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported in the past few days but observations have been limited. 

If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network.  

Snowpack Summary

The storm snow is burying a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. Strong southwest wind will be redistributing this new snow in exposed high elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs. Lower elevations are expected to see a mix of wet snow and rainfall, and wet loose avalanche should be expected. 

The middle and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.