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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2023–Mar 22nd, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Large avalanches are running from warm, solar aspects as they heat up from direct sun. Spread your group out, cross quickly, and use the cool morning temps to increase your safety margin.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

The last 2 days have seen a decent solar avalanche cycle in the afternoon, with numerous sz 2.5-3 loose, wet avalanches gouging deep into the snowpack from Lone Pine, Park One, Cheops South, Tupper, Avalanche Crest, etc.

Deep persistent slabs are a concern, with a report of a cornice-triggered pocket high on Mt Smart failing to glacial ice, as well as a deep slab on Mt Fidelity.

Snowpack Summary

Sun and warm afternoon temps have created a surface crust on solar aspects at all elevations, while N'ly slopes contain settled, dry powder (good, predictable riding).

Below this is a generally strong snowpack, however the basal weakness of rounding facets/decomposing crust near the ground should factor in to your terrain-use decisions.

Weather Summary

Continuing high pressure with sunny skies, light winds, and warm afternoon temps.

Tonight: clear, Alp low -4*C, light ridge winds

Wed: sun and cloud, Alp high -2, light ridge winds, FZL 1900m in PM

Thurs: increasing cloud with PM flurries, 5cm, Alp high -3*C, light/gusting moderate SW winds, FZL 1500m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.