We are uncertain how the buried persistent weak layer will react to the forecasted warming.
In times of uncertainty, conservative terrain choices are our best defense.
New snow continues to build storm slabs, which are expected to remain reactive due to the underlying layer of large surface hoar and a crust. Be aware of remote triggering and wide propagation under these conditions.
On Sunday, wet loose avalanches were observed on steep terrain at lower elevations, while riders were able to trigger storm slabs (size 1.5) on easterly features at treeline.
Evidence of a natural cycle from Saturday night is still visible in the Lizard range with numerous storm slabs (size 1.5 to 2) released on north to east alpine and treeline slopes.
All of these avalanches failed on the late January surface hoar/crust layer described in the snowpack summary.
10 to 15 cm of new snow now buries old surfaces, including a sun crust on south to east aspects, wind slabs in open areas and settling storm snow on north to east aspects. Moderate to strong south and west wind have affected the snow distribution, creating deeper deposits on lee slopes.
The late January surface hoar/crust layer is 20 to 40 cm deep and has shown signs of recent reactivity in the past 4 days, especially in sheltered treeline and below treeline features.
At 1600 meters and below, the snow surface is moist due to daytime warming. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy. 40 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1400 m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and clouds. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0°C. Freezing level 2200 m.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 2 °C. Freezing level 2800 m.
Thursday
Mostly sunny. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 3300 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
