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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 7th, 2021–Mar 8th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Sunny skies and rising temperatures may initiate wet loose avalanches on lower elevation and/or sun-exposed slopes. Steer clear of cornices and wind-drifted areas as they have the potential to produce large avalanches. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

Dry conditions for the next few days

Sunday night: Mainly cloudy, 5-10 cm of snow, light south winds, freezing level near 600 m. 

Monday: Mainly sunny, light southeast winds, freezing level rising to 1300 m by end of day and dropping to 1000 m overnight.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast winds, freezing level rising to 1300 m and dropping to 500 m overnight.

Wednesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate northwest winds, freezing level rising to 1200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Recent snow and cornices may become unstable due to warming from sun and rising temperatures. Cornices could reach their breaking point, like this MIN from Sky Pilot last week.

Snowpack Summary

Since Friday, the mountains in the south coast region have seen anywhere from 20-60 cm of snow that fell on a mix of previous surfaces, including a warm crust, wet snow, wind-pressed snow, and settled cold snow. This new layer has been accompanied by moderate to strong strong south winds, forming wind slabs on leeward slopes at upper elevations that may be likely to trigger. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can act as triggers on slopes below. 

Below the recent snow, the snowpack consists of a series of rain crusts and settled snow that is well-bonded. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.