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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 6th, 2021–Apr 7th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Stormy conditions are expected to build fresh and reactive storm slabs throughout the day. Choose conservative terrain and watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, cracking and recent avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night - Cloudy with flurries / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine low temperature near -5 / freezing level 900 m

Wednesday - Snow, 15-25 cm / moderate to strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1000 m

Thursday - A mix of sun and cloud / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -8 / freezing level 1000 m 

Friday - Snow, 10-15 cm / light northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1000 m

Avalanche Summary

With high snow accumulations and strong southwest winds expected on Wednesday, fresh and reactive slabs are likely to increase in reactivity as the day goes on.

A natural avalanche cycle was observed in the region on Saturday during the storm. On Sunday, there were a few size 1-1.5 human triggered wind slab avalanches reported. This MIN describes triggering a small wind slab in large terrain. 

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of snow is expected to accumulate throughout the day, adding to the 20 cm that fell over the weekend. The precipitation is likely to fall as rain below around 1000 m. 

The new snow sits on a crust on sun-exposed aspects, and on all aspects below 1600 m, and on soft snow or wind slabs on north aspects. Southwest winds are expected to create fresh and reactive slabs during the day.

Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Their release is unpredictable, requiring a large berth if you're travelling above or below them.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Choose conservative terrain and watch for clues of instability.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.