Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 14 – 15, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Watch out for rising temperatures and solar heating which can increase the avalanche danger. Start early.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Originally formed on weak Feb 20th facets. It is prudent to keep this on your radar with warmer temperatures as reactivity may increase. Cornices will have the potential to fail and trigger slabs below.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    Even with clouds in the forecast, green house effect and higher freezing levels have the potential to warm up the snowpack enough for the wet loose to be an issue. Best time to travel is early while its frozen solid.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alpine temperature: High -4 °C. Ridge wind light to 15 km/h. Freezing level: 1700m

Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. Alpine temperature: Low -10 °C, High -5 °C. Light ridge wind. Freezing level: 1600m

Snowpack Summary

Sunny skies and warm temperatures have created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at tree line and below. There is widespread wind scouring to rock in exposed alpine features. The middle of the snowpack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow spots where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

Several natural wet avalanches crossed the highway 93N on Sunday near Weeping Wall from below tree line slopes.  Natural and explosive triggered avalanches stepping down to the February persistent weak layer (down 60cm) resulted in two size 2 avalanches at Marmot Basin.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Regions covered