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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2021–Mar 31st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

 

 

Expect spring sun and rising freezing levels to increase the hazard as the day progresses. Leave solar slopes before they get moist. Moderate wind could help keep things cool, but could also be building new wind slabs near ridge crests. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT - Clear / moderate west wind / alpine low temperature near -11 / freezing level valley bottom

WEDNESDAY - Mostly clear / moderate south west wind / alpine high 0 / freezing level 2000 m

Stating Thursday through Easter weekend, some models suggest it is possible we will not get good overnight recovery.

THURSDAY- Partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high +5 / freezing level 2300 m

FRIDAY- Partly cloudy / moderate south west wind / alpine high 0 / freezing level to 1900 m

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 cornice triggered storm slab was reported south of Sparwood on Tuesday. A few size 1 loose moist ski cuts were reported with some limited warming at lower elevations.

Widespread natural and explosives triggered avalanches up to size 2.5, and skier controlled avalanches up to size 2 were reported on Monday. 

Glide cracks continue to grow. This serves as a great reminder to avoid slopes with glide cracks on them at all times. They are inherently unstable and can release at any time.

Snowpack Summary

The 30-55 cm of recent storm snow appears to be bonding well to previous melt freeze crusts from mid March that were found on all but steep north facing alpine slopes. Moderate westerly winds have been transporting snow and forming new wind slabs in lee features. Cornices are reported to be large and looming. With rising freezing levels and sunny skies, snow will likely lose strength as it get moist at lower elevations and upper elevations on solar aspects. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • Carefully monitor the bond between the new snow and old surface.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.