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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2021–Feb 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

A bunch of new snow in the past couple of days, combined with the uncertainty created by the recently buried Feb. 14th interface, make conservative terrain choices your best bet for safely enjoying the epic skiing that abounds at the moment.

Weather Forecast

A brief lull from a weak ridge today, followed by more snowfall and wind as a series of fronts are pushed our way by an Aleutian Low.

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud, Alpine High -13 C. Moderate W ridgetop wind.

Sunday: Flurries (5cm). Low -14 C, High -6 C. Moderate SW wind.

Monday: Snow (5-10cm). Low -9 C, High -7 C. Strong SW wind.

Tuesday: Flurries.

Snowpack Summary

New snow (up to 55cm) has formed fresh storm slabs over previously settled storm snow, and a thin suncrust on steep solar aspects. The 80mm of precip, and extreme S'ly winds from early in the week sit on the Feb 14 drought interface; a wind crust in exposed areas near the Pass; buried windslabs, facets, and a thin suncrust as you move East or West.

Avalanche Summary

Several storm slabs from size 1.5-3.0 were triggered by Fridays convective snowfall, most notably 2 size 3.0s from Manix and Gunners (S aspects).

A spike in wind and snow triggered several size 2-3 storm slabs on Mt Tupper and MacDonald on Thursday.

Early in the week a torrent of very large natural and controlled avalanches ran full.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.