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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 2nd, 2022–Mar 3rd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Reactive storm slabs likely exist at treeline and in the alpine. They could be touchier on leeward slopes due to wind loading.

At lower elevations, loose wet avalanches are possible with high freezing levels and a rain soaked snow pack.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Change is in the air with an unstable airmass bringing convective, spring-like weather. Generally, overcast skies and a drying trend will exist Thursday. The ridge should be set up by Friday with clearing skies and light northwest winds.   

Wednesday Night: 5-10 cm of new snow above 1000 m and rain below. Freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and moderate southwesterly wind at ridgetop. 

Thursday: Cloudy skies. Light northwest wind and freezing levels 1000 m. 

Friday: Sunny skies with spring-like (diurnal) freezing levels dropping to 1000 m overnight and rising to 1500 m during the day. Ridgetop wind moderate from the northwest. 

Avalanche Summary

No new reports on Wednesday by 4 pm. 

On Tuesday, numerous size 1 wet loose avalanches were reported at below treeline elevations. Poor visibility made for limited alpine observations. 

On Monday, our field team observed widespread natural avalanche activity size 1-2.5. A skier-triggered size 2 storm slab was reported at Mt Cain on Sunday in this MIN.

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm snow is topped with a thin freezing rain crust and 5 cm of recent moist snow. Within the 40-60 cm of new snow, a wet layer on the surface is stacked on top of lower density, dry snow. This configuration is referred to as upside-down and is often associated with short-term instability while the soft bottom settles. Above 1900 m, the surface remains dry and has seen extensive wind effect, with extremely variable depths and areas of hard wind slab.

The storm snow sits over a thin layer of weak crystals on a thick, widespread rain crust which makes a great sliding surface for avalanches. This crust is capping a well settled and strong mid and lower snowpack. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.