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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 19th, 2022–Feb 20th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Carefully assess the amount of new snow. The avalanche hazard will likely be greatest in the southern part of the region where forecasted snowfall amounts are greatest.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: low of -6 at 1500m. light flurries in the north bringing trace amounts of snow. Moderate to heavy precipitation in the south bringing up to 25cm of snow. Light west winds.

Sunday: a mix of sun and cloud with light flurries bringing trace amounts in the north and light northerly winds. Cloudy in the south with up to 10cm of snow and light westerly winds. High of -4 at 1500m. 

Monday: a mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light north winds. High of -10 at 1500m.

Tuesday: mostly sunny with no new snow expected. Light moderate north winds and a high of -11 at 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

We suspect that rider triggerable storm and wind slabs will be found throughout the region on Monday.

On Friday one skier controlled size one wind slab avalanche was reported in the south of the region. This avalanche ran on the mid February crust.

On Thursday one size one skier triggered avalanche was reported in the north part of the region. It was on a cross loaded feature at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

New snow accompanied by southwest winds on Saturday will likely have formed storm and wind slabs.

20 to 40cm sits above the mid February crust. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for high elevation polar aspects in the north of the region. Facets and surface hoar can be found above the crust in the north of the region. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 40 to 100cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region it may be possible to trigger with a heavy load or in shallow snowpack areas at upper treeline and lower alpine features on north aspects.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.