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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

 Keep an eye on the snow surface. As the freezing level rises and the snow surface becomes moist wet loose avalanches will increase in size and likelihood. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Flurries bringing around 5 cm of new snow at higher elevations. Moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising to 1700 m.

Tuesday: cloudy with around 5 mm of precipitation likely falling as rain at all elevations. moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising to 2500 m.

Wednesday: Cloudy with up to 10 mm of precipitation that will likely fall as rain. Freezing levels falling to 1500 m. Moderate southwest winds.

Thursday: A mix of sun and cloud with no new snow expected. Light to moderate variable winds with freezing levels around 1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

initial reports from Sunday suggest that there was a widespread storm slab cycle to size two in the region. 

On Saturday skier traffic produced small slabs and loose avalanches on all aspects and elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs could be found on northerly aspects at higher elevations. Moist snow will likely be found on all aspects and elevations. 

The upper snowpack contains several crust layers that can likely be found on all aspects and elevations except high north terrain. The snowpack is considered well-settled and strong below these crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.