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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 28th, 2022–Mar 1st, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

As rain soaks the snowpack to the tops of the north shore mountains, loose wet avalanches will be easily triggerable by skiers. In higher terrain, heavy snow and wind will continue to build touchy storm slabs.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast precipitation (either snow or rain) amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Rain, 10-15 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1900 m.

Tuesday: Rain, 10-15 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline high temperature +1 C, freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday: Wet snow mixed with rain, 15-20 mm, moderate southwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Thursday: Clearing, light northwest wind, treeline high temperature 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Storm slabs were touchy on Sunday! A widespread natural storm slab avalanche cycle was reported up to size 2. Skier controlled storm slabs were triggering remotely and propagating widely at treeline and below as shown in this MIN report. Storms slab avalanches may gain mass by entraining wet snow, and run surprisingly far.

Snowpack Summary

30-60 cm of new snow from yesterday is becoming soaked by rain. Above 1400 m, snow may begin to accumulate over the rain soaked surface as the freezing level sinks back down. The new snow sits over a variety of weak surfaces including facets, surface hoar and sun crust, to which it appeared to be bonding poorly yesterday. 

50-80 cm below the surface, a 30cm thick crust caps the underlying snowpack which is well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.